Advances in Attribution Science: Linking Extreme Weather to Climate Change

Researchers in attribution science are rapidly developing methods to determine the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. A recent report from the nation’s top scientific advisory body supports this field, which aims to help governments hold fossil fuel companies accountable for damage caused by intensified weather.

Extreme event attribution seeks to answer pressing questions about the degree to which climate change worsens specific events like heat waves, downpours, droughts, and wildfires. Although scientists have long recognized that global warming, driven by fossil fuel emissions, increases the severity and likelihood of extreme weather, precise estimation of climate change’s role in specific events had not been possible until recent advancements.

“The report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine highlights the potential relevance of attribution findings in legal cases. For instance, Multnomah County in Oregon referenced an attribution study in their $50 billion lawsuit against oil companies. This study showed that the 2021 summer heat wave in the Pacific Northwest was ‘virtually impossible’ without human-induced climate change.”

As more regions pursue legal action, fossil fuel industry advocates are criticizing attribution scientists as biased against oil producers. The Independent Petroleum Association of America’s Energy in Depth project labeled the report as part of a “litigation campaign” against the industry.

The National Academies report indicates significant advancement in attribution science methodologies. Researchers now employ more sophisticated techniques and higher quality data, enhancing their confidence in attributing specific weather events to human activities rather than atmospheric variability.