China and the U.S. in the AI Race: Navigating Talent and Technology

Trump Administration’s AI Strategy

President Donald Trump focuses on excluding China from America’s advanced technology as part of his strategy to triumph in the AI race. Yet, the U.S. faces challenges with its own strategies as some key AI researchers hail from China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming state visit to Washington on September 24 will prominently feature discussions on artificial intelligence. There have been ongoing talks about integrating a delayed intergovernmental AI dialogue into broader economic sessions already planned.

In a recent statement, Trump emphasized the high stakes involved by declaring, “WHOEVER WINS AI, WINS!” He contends that imposing guardrails on AI could benefit Beijing.

China’s Reclamation of Talent

America’s AI lead is significantly supported by foreign-born talent, with China actively reclaiming some of these valuable individuals. For instance, Yao Shunyu moved from OpenAI to Tencent as its chief AI scientist, promoting long-term AI research in China.

Another influential figure, Yang Zhilin, transitioned from Carnegie Mellon University back to China in 2023 to establish Moonshot AI. This enterprise has gained substantial investment, launching the Kimi model series, which U.S. startups leverage for economic and performance reasons.

Such shifts occur amid long-standing tensions. A study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace highlighted obstacles like visa uncertainties and indictments, which have ostensibly contributed to Chinese researchers returning home.

The Role of Chinese-Origin Researchers

Carnegie tracked 100 leading Chinese-origin AI researchers based in the U.S. as of 2019. By 2025, ten had shifted to Chinese institutions or companies. Among these, two founded startups, two assumed leadership roles in Chinese tech firms, and five became professors at major Chinese universities.

The study found retention levels high, with 87 staying at U.S institutions and three moving to other foreign establishments. Within those who remained, a significant number work for major U.S. tech companies.

Matt Sheehan and Sophie Zhuang argue this is a strong facet of U.S. AI competitiveness, largely bolstered by Chinese contributions. Chinese-origin researchers often match or surpass their U.S. counterparts in generating AI research output.

Challenges in Recruiting Talent

The U.S. faces increasing difficulties attracting new talent. The Paulson Institute’s updated dataset with Carnegie reveals a substantial shift in where top AI researchers are working.

The proportion of Chinese undergraduate degree holders among top AI researchers increased from 29% in 2019 to 47% in 2022, while those at U.S. institutions declined notably.

Sheehan and Zhuang point to barriers like visa restrictions and geopolitical tensions as contributing factors. Some researchers report feeling racially profiled, and overall, flights between the two countries have not returned to normal levels post-pandemic.

A considerable number of Chinese scholars have departed U.S. universities for China, a trend tracked by Princeton and Stanford researchers.

The Implications of AI Domination

There is no consensus on how to measure success in the AI competition. China’s state security minister terms American AI models as tools for propaganda and cognitive warfare. Meanwhile, U.S. officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasize urgency, asserting that losing could have dire consequences.

Achieving victory involves having the most advanced firms and swift technology deployment, according to Chris Miller of Tufts University. It’s about using AI for practical gains, as noted by David Lin of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Carnegie calls for investments in education, research grants, and secure visas, enabling top global AI researchers, including Chinese, to thrive in the U.S. Unfortunately, none of these proposals are scheduled for the state visit.