Forecasters predict an El Nino climate pattern that might be among the strongest recorded, bringing more extreme weather. Jeff Berardelli, WFLA-TV Chief Meteorologist in Tampa, Florida, stated, “I think we’re going to see weather events that we’ve never seen in modern history before.” The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects El Nino to develop mid-year, influencing global temperatures and rainfall. While models suggest a strong event, the WMO notes forecasting challenges in spring.
Understanding El Nino
El Nino is a periodic natural warming of certain areas in the equatorial Pacific that alters global weather patterns. Its opposite, La Nina, involves cooler-than-average waters. Berardelli explains El Nino redistributes Earth’s heat. Currently, Pacific subsurface heat is moving east and rising to the surface, marking the start of El Nino. WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update shows rapidly rising sea-surface temperatures and high confidence in El Nino’s continuation and intensification, according to Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO’s Climate Prediction Chief. El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months.
Reasons for Concern
A firefighter battles the Canyon Fire on Aug. 7, 2025, in Hasley Canyon, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, File)
El Nino’s forecast is significant, says California Institute for Water Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain. The subsurface warm water anomalies are historically large. “Super El Ninos” represent the strongest events. Swain noted, “We still don’t know exactly what’s going to happen. It’s not guaranteed it’ll be a super El Nino. But the potential is there for something genuinely remarkable.” Berardelli adds that increased heat could lead to stronger heatwaves, more severe droughts, and increased flood intensity. In the Atlantic, El Nino suppresses the hurricane season, leading to drier conditions in places like the Caribbean.
Global Impact Expectations
People walk through a part of the Amazon River that shows signs of drought in Santa Sofia, on the outskirts of Leticia, Colombia, Oct. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Ivan Valencia, File)
El Nino affects the world. In the United States, this summer may be hotter than usual, with significant heatwaves, says Berardelli. More frequent thunderstorms could occur in the Southwest. About 40% of the Amazon faces forest degradation due to wildfires, logging, and drought, potentially worsening in 2026 with a strong El Nino. Swain expects the combined heat from El Nino and climate change to result in record global warmth soon. “All indicators are, at this point, that the next year is going to be a pretty wild year from a global climate perspective,” he notes. Michael Mann, a University of Pennsylvania climate scientist, asserts that while El Nino temporarily raises global temperatures, it is generally a “zero-sum game.” Eventually, the pattern shifts to La Nina, decreasing global temperatures. Mann emphasizes the importance of addressing the long-term warming trend linked to fossil fuel usage.
Associated Press News Director Peter Prengaman contributed to this report.
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