Iran’s Future Uncertain After Khamenei’s Death

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei profoundly changed the course of Iran over his tenure as supreme leader. By strengthening Iran into a regional force, he also heightened tensions with Israel and the United States. His funeral proceedings are set to begin on Saturday, following his death during the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran.

Khamenei took charge following Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s death in 1989. Khomeini had led the overthrow of the shah and established the rule by Shiite Muslim clerics. Khamenei, despite possessing less religious authority, worked to transform that revolutionary vision into a state establishment.

He lent support to numerous armed groups in the region and advanced Iran’s nuclear program. Throughout his rule, he quashed several protest movements with force. Though his confrontations with the U.S. and Israel garnered domestic backing, they contributed to his end. Khamenei bolstered Iran’s military capability, employing proxies in various conflicts.

The Rise of the Revolutionary Guard

After the 1980s conflict with Iraq, Khamenei elevated the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard to a position of paramount importance in Iran. The Guard emerged as both a military and economic heavyweight, entwining itself with various sectors of the Iranian economy.

Under his leadership, Iran transitioned from conventional warfare strategies to supporting proxy groups, thereby forming what is known as the “Axis of Resistance.” Key allies in this axis included the Lebanese group Hezbollah, which expelled Israel from southern Lebanon in 2000 and has clashed with Israeli forces since.

Iran also aligned with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who took control of Yemen’s capital in 2014, and the Palestinian group Hamas, involved in conflicts with Israel in the Gaza Strip. Iranian-backed militias also fought against U.S. forces in Iraq. However, the Middle East wars following Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023 led to the weakening of this axis, diminishing the strength of both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Nuclear Ambitions Under Scrutiny

Khamenei stood firm on Iran’s right to pursue a nuclear program, dismissing U.N. sanctions. He issued a religious decree against nuclear weapons but insisted on developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran significantly curtailed its nuclear activities in return for lifted sanctions. However, after U.S. President Donald Trump exited the accord in 2018, Iran amassed uranium nearing weapons-grade levels, stirring concerns among Israel and the U.S. that Iran might pursue nuclear arms.

The U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and the ongoing conflict have targeted Iran’s nuclear initiatives.

Protest Movements and Crackdowns

Political repression and Iran’s struggling economy have sparked escalating protests over the years. Major unrest occurred in 2009 after reformists claimed the election of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was fixed. The government response resulted in deaths and numerous arrests.

Further protests in 2017 and 2019 over economic issues met a similar reaction, with significant casualties reported. In 2022, the death of Mahsa Amini, detained for improper wearing of a headscarf, ignited protests that led to over 500 deaths and the detention of tens of thousands.

In late 2025, economic issues again fueled a massive protest movement, potentially the largest seen yet, urging an end to the Islamic Republic. The authorities’ brutal crackdown left at least 7,000 dead.

Uncertain Future

The death of Khamenei has left Iran’s future in flux. His successor, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is believed to have been injured in the same attack that killed his father and remains out of public view.

With no signs of a popular uprising, the direction of Iran may hinge on the Revolutionary Guard, which continues to play a significant role in securing the regime’s power. The outcome following Khamenei’s burial remains unclear.