Nevada’s Gubernatorial Race: Ford vs. Lombardo

Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford will challenge Republican Governor Joe Lombardo this November. This comes after Ford triumphed in the Democratic primary in Nevada, a key battleground state. Nevada previously supported Democratic nominees in 2016 and 2020, but backed President Donald Trump by a margin of about 3 percentage points in 2024. Prior to Lombardo’s tenure, Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, held the governor’s office. The Cook Political Report currently categorizes the gubernatorial race as a ‘toss up.’

Nevada’s Gubernatorial Race

Ford emerged victorious from the Democratic primary, overcoming Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill among others. This sets him up for a face-off against Lombardo this November. Ford’s win over Hill might suggest that establishment-backed candidates can excel in competitive statewide races compared to more progressive newcomers. Should Ford win in the general election, he will become Nevada’s first Black governor.

According to the Associated Press, Ford secured the nomination at 11:45 p.m., garnering 66.2 percent of the vote compared to Hill’s 21.1 percent. Meanwhile, Lombardo’s win was declared at 11:35 p.m., with him holding 91.4 percent of the vote by 11:52 p.m. ET.

Lombardo is considered one of the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbents in the upcoming midterms. Although generally aligned with Trump and his agenda, Lombardo has kept some distance, including not joining Trump during his Las Vegas visit in April. He also expressed reservations regarding the costs of the administration’s mass deportation plans. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has thrown her support behind Ford.

What Polls Show

Public polling for the general race remains scarce, though existing data indicates a tight contest. A March poll by Nevada Public Opinion Pulse from Noble Predictive Insights revealed Lombardo with a slight 1-point lead, standing at 39 percent against Ford’s 38 percent. Around 6 percent of respondents favored a third-party candidate in this scenario, while 17 percent remained undecided.

Among independents and moderates, Lombardo leads by 6 and 2 points, respectively. Meanwhile, Ford holds a notable advantage among Hispanics and women, with respective leads of 24 and 4 points. Lombardo’s favorability rating is at 48 percent, with Ford’s at 40 percent. Lombardo’s unfavorable rating is 38 percent, whereas Ford’s is 33 percent. Additionally, Ford remains less recognized, with 27 percent of voters either unaware of him or lacking an opinion, compared to 14 percent for Lombardo.

This poll, which surveyed 845 registered voters, has a margin of error of 3.37 percentage points. “Lombardo is doing what strong incumbents do — he’s running ahead of his party,” said Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, in the poll’s press release. “The generic ballot says Nevada still leans a bit blue, but Lombardo’s personal brand, job image, and financial position are keeping him highly competitive.”

A November Emerson College Polling survey of 800 registered Nevada voters, conducted from November 16 to November 18, found Lombardo and Ford tied at 41 percent. Approximately 18 percent of participants were undecided. This poll has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. It also revealed that around 36 percent of respondents disapprove of Lombardo’s performance as governor, while 34 percent approve.

What Prediction Markets Say

Prediction markets suggest an advantage for Democrats in the race. Kalshi predicts a 56 percent likelihood of Democrats winning the governor’s office compared to a 46 percent chance for Republicans. Similarly, Polymarket presents Democrats’ odds as 54 percent against Republicans’ 43 percent.