SpaceX Rocket on Collision Path with Moon Highlights Space Debris Concerns

A SpaceX rocket segment is predicted to collide with the moon this week. The upper stage of the rocket, launched over a year ago, will unintentionally impact the moon, creating a new crater and producing a visible dust cloud. Space tracking specialist Bill Gray estimates the collision speed at 5,400 mph (8,700 kph), targeting the moon’s sunlit western side near Einstein Crater.

The impact is expected to generate visual interest for both scientists and astronomical enthusiasts. Prime viewing areas include parts of the eastern U.S., Canada, and much of South America. Although scientists are not alarmed by this specific piece of space debris, it illustrates the growing issue of space congestion. Bill Gray, who plans to observe from New Brunswick, Canada, commented on the increasing orbital crowding.

This incident will mark the second unintended lunar crash of a rocket segment. In 2022, a segment from a Chinese rocket also collided with the moon. Fortunately for astronomers, the upcoming event involves an impact on the more visible side of the moon, involving energy comparable to three tons of TNT.

The expected brief impact flash may not be visible to the naked eye, but the resulting debris could disperse over several miles and remain observable via telescopes for minutes. Scientist Benjamin Fernando from Los Alamos National Laboratory emphasizes the importance of these observations for assessing future astronaut risks. He estimates the resulting crater to be approximately 90 feet wide and 16 feet deep.

Nasa’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will photograph the crash site before and after impact. According to Fernando’s team, Danuri will approach the rocket segment just minutes pre-impact.

The abandoned rocket, measuring 40 feet (12 meters) and weighing about 10,000 pounds (4,500 kilograms), carried two lunar landers launched on January 15, 2025. Notably, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost achieved a successful lunar landing, whereas ispace’s lander did not survive.

While meteoroids provide little advance warning before hitting the moon, studying human-made impacts can yield valuable data. In past lunar exploration, NASA has purposely impacted objects for scientific research. With lunar exploration growing, improving debris tracking and management is becoming crucial, especially as the U.S. and China plan future manned lunar missions.

Safe navigation is a priority for entities like SpaceX and Blue Origin, now vying to offer landers for future NASA lunar missions. Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell underscores the importance of developing better strategies for managing space debris in lunar orbit.

The Associated Press Health and Science Department supported this article’s preparation through the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP maintains editorial independence regarding content.