Texas Senate Race: The Impact of Trump on Ken Paxton’s Campaign

Many voters in Texas express significant concern over Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton’s association with Donald Trump, based on a recent Fox News survey. President Trump attended a rally supporting Paxton at the Peterbilt Motors plant in Denton, which included Dennis Rodman, a retired basketball star. Yet, the poll indicates that Paxton’s strong connection to Trump might benefit his Democratic opponent, James Talarico.

Democratic Aspirations

Democrats aim to gain control of the Senate in the upcoming November elections, intending to obstruct Trump’s legislative ambitions during the final years of a potential second term. A win in the Texas Senate seat, unachieved by Democrats since 1988, would be pivotal. Newsweek contacted both Paxton’s and Talarico’s campaigns for comments via email and telephone.

Fox News Poll Insights

The Fox News survey gathered responses from 1,203 registered Texas voters, with 881 classified as likely voters, conducted between September 24 and 28. The poll shows Talarico with a narrow 2-point lead, having 51% support compared to Paxton’s 49%, which falls within the margin of error.

Talarico appears to have garnered greater support from self-identified Democrats compared to Paxton’s support from Republicans. An overwhelming 99% of Democrats back Talarico as opposed to a mere 1% for Paxton. Additionally, only 90% of Republicans support Paxton, with 10% opting for Talarico.

Internal Republican Divisions

The divide among Republicans is notable, particularly among those not identifying as ‘MAGA’, with 22% favoring Talarico. In contrast, 96% of MAGA Republicans support Paxton, with only 4% backing Talarico.

Concerns over Paxton’s connection to Trump are evident, with 37% of voters ‘extremely concerned’ and 14% ‘very concerned’. Around 29% of respondents were ‘not concerned at all’, and another 20% were ‘not very concerned’. Overall, 51% show concern about Paxton’s Trump connection, while 48% are not.

Among ‘non-MAGA’ Republicans, 39% express concern over Paxton’s Trump ties, yet 61% do not. Conversely, only 10% of ‘MAGA’ Republicans share this concern.

Trump’s Influence

A significant 63% of Texan voters indicate Trump holds ‘extreme’ or ‘significant’ importance in their Senate voting, compared to 36% viewing him as ‘not important’. This parallels findings from a Big Data Poll surveying 698 likely voters in late September, showing Talarico receiving support from 15% of Trump voters for 2024, compared to Paxton’s appeal to 4.2% of Harris voters.

The Denton Rally

During Trump’s address in Denton, he praised Paxton’s loyalty, despite his occasional contentious presence. Trump criticized Talarico, labeling him a negative choice for the state and country.

Leaked Insights

The New York Times disclosed an audio leak suggesting Paxton admitting Trump’s midterm Dallas convention harmed his campaign. In the audio, Paxton reportedly mentions a drop in numbers following the convention.

When contacted, Nick Maddux, a senior advisor for Paxton, refuted the claims, calling the reports manipulated. Trump’s remarks at the convention included backing of Paxton, interspersed with jabs at his appearance.

Candidate Controversies

Paxton triumphed over Senator John Cornyn with Trump’s endorsement during the Republican runoff. This contest was highly contentious, and Cornyn has since distanced himself from campaigning for Paxton.

Paxton faced impeachment accusations of abuse of public trust, although he was ultimately found not guilty by the state Senate.

Religious Controversies

Talarico faced backlash for comments on religion, claiming ‘God is nonbinary’. His stance raised discussions about the nature of divinity.

Technology and Policy

Talarico proposes an ‘AI Dividend’ for Americans from AI profits. Paxton, however, advocates for increased regulation on Chinese tech in U.S. data centers and tougher measures on AI that might endanger child safety.

Views on Marijuana

Talarico supports marijuana legalization and regulation, challenging current Texas laws as encouraging drug cartel activity. Paxton has legally opposed local decriminalization efforts of cannabis.

Recent Election Polling

Recent polls indicate a tight race, often within the margin of error, with Talarico showing a slight lead. A Rasmussen Reports poll of 1,128 likely voters shows Talarico at 46% against Paxton’s 45%. Another Public Opinion Research poll indicated Talarico leading by five points.

Prediction markets, as of early October, suggest a 62% likelihood of Talarico winning, contrasting with a 39% chance for Paxton.

Newsweek’s AI assistant, Martyn, aided in compiling this story. For more information, contact Newsweek editors Matthew Cannon and Gray R. Thomas.