U.S. Munitions Shortfall in Conflict with Iran and Efforts to Replenish Supplies

The United States has underestimated the consumption of munitions in its conflict with Iran. During the ten-week war and ongoing confrontations, the Army has nearly exhausted its stock of long-range ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles. The Army also faces a deficit in THAAD and Patriot air defense systems. Similarly, the Navy’s reserves of Tomahawk land attack and Standard air defense missiles are depleted, while the Air Force has a shortage of joint air-to-surface standoff missiles.

To address these shortages, the War Department is initiating long-term agreements with manufacturers to boost production. An example is a contract with Lockheed-Martin for high-rate Patriot missile production valued at $59 billion over seven years. This contract aims to triple the current production by 2030. Lockheed-Martin plans to expand its workforce by 50% and upgrade or open 20 new facilities.

A related agreement with RTX, Raytheon’s parent company, plans to increase the annual output of Tomahawk missiles to at least 1,000 from the current 60 units. Raytheon will also boost production of AMRAAM missiles from 1,200 to more than 1,900 annually, and elevate Standard Missile SM-6 production to 500 each year, a significant jump from 150. RTX also announced plans to enhance the production of SM-3 IIA and SM-3 IB missiles.

The shortages these deals seek to remedy stem from three key factors. Initially, policymakers assumed that the end of the Cold War would reduce munitions demands. Secondly, munitions frequently served as a financial buffer for other Pentagon programs. This pattern continued over subsequent years. Additionally, the military miscalculated its munitions usage during extended conflicts, such as those in Iraq and against the Houthis.

The Biden administration realized that just-in-time munitions production was ineffective and started increasing output. Both the Trump administration and Congress allocated more resources toward this effort. However, despite new long-term agreements, ramping up production may remain challenging. Subcontractors, particularly smaller suppliers, will require investments for expanded facilities. Furthermore, while leading contractors can enlarge their workforce, it is uncertain if they can secure enough skilled labor.

Lockheed faces difficulties meeting its Patriot targets until 2030 due to production constraints. Other contractors also expect challenges in achieving goals. Meanwhile, the U.S. faces potential threats from nations like Russia, China, and Iran. Additionally, various military procurement and development priorities compete for resources, further complicating munitions production plans.

After the conflict with Iran, there is a risk of reverting to neglect munitions in favor of other programs. To prevent repeating past mistakes, the administration and Congress must maintain focus on munitions readiness to avoid being ill-prepared for future conflicts.

Dov S. Zakheim, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, served as undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004.