Trump Faces Declining Approval Ratings Ahead of Midterms

With three months remaining until the November 3 midterm elections, recent polling indicates that President Donald Trump is navigating a challenging political climate. State-by-state data reveals Trump is struggling in every swing state, suggesting even minor changes in voter opinions could impact control of Congress in November.

Data from Civiqs’ ongoing online survey, which received 120,580 responses from registered voters, shows a comparative analysis of Trump’s approval rating on July 30, 2026, versus his standing on January 20, 2025, the first day of his second term. The net approval calculation is the difference between approval and disapproval ratings.

The White House has consistently emphasized Trump’s 2024 election win as evidence of public support, arguing voters provided a mandate for his administration’s agenda.

Current Approval Ratings

Overall, Trump’s national approval rating is at 36 percent, with a disapproval rate of 59 percent, resulting in a net approval of -23. State-by-state data shows a similar pattern: positive in Republican areas, highly negative in Democratic regions, and unfavorable in battleground states critical to the midterms.

Some states which began Trump’s second term with positive net approval now show negative ratings. Significant declines have been seen in Republican-leaning states that once formed Trump’s core support group. Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates remain among Trump’s weakest demographics.

Impact of Approval Ratings

Brett Loyd, cofounder of the Independent Center, indicates that Trump’s poor position, noted as a ‘collapse among the middle third of the electorate’, could create issues for Republican candidates in November. Loyd warns that Democrats should not assume dissatisfaction with Trump automatically benefits their party.

Comparison with Previous Midterms

Joe Biden, at a similar stage before the 2022 midterms, had an approval of 36 percent and disapproval of 55 percent, a net rating of -19. While Trump’s current figures are slightly worse, both presidents faced more disapproval than approval ahead of their first midterm elections. Trump’s current figures are notably weaker compared to the 2018 midterms, where he had a net approval of -10.

Demographic Insights

Demographics illustrate state-level trends, with Trump weakest among younger voters aged 18 to 34, where only 22 percent approve versus 72 percent disapprove. Among voters aged 35 to 49, approval is at 29 percent, while 63 percent disapprove. Among independents, 28 percent approve and 64 percent disapprove. Women disapprove by a 65-to-30 margin, and men are divided at 53 percent disapprove to 42 percent approve. Education also plays a role, with 24 percent of postgraduates approving and 72 percent disapproving. Non-college graduates show a narrowed split of 39 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval.

Strongholds and Shifting Support

Trump’s best numbers continue to come from the Republican heartland, with Wyoming and North Dakota leading at net approval ratings of +19, followed by West Virginia at +15, Alabama at +13, and Idaho at +13. Though support remains, margins have decreased since Trump’s second term started.

Swing states remain a challenge. Trump is underwater in:- Arizona: -11- Georgia: -22- Nevada: -21- North Carolina: -15- Pennsylvania: -18- Wisconsin: -16- Florida: -12- Ohio: -13.

Destinations such as Florida and Ohio have shifted from positive to negative ratings. This trend is consistent across states likely to influence political control post-November.

State Trends

Every state in the tracker has seen a decline in net approval since January 20, 2025. Largest drops include Kentucky from +23 to -5 (down 28 points), Wyoming from +47 to +19 (down 28 points), and Oklahoma from +31 to +8 (down 23 points).

Major declines are occurring in Republican or Republican-leaning states, reflecting voter frustration over political upheaval compared to desired economic stability.

Democratic States

Hawaii holds the lowest net approval at -60, followed by Vermont at -55, Maryland at -52, Massachusetts at -46, and California at -44. Here, opposition to Trump remains solid, rooted since the start of his second term.

Midpoint States

Some states are closely aligned near the transition between positive and negative territory, including Indiana at +2, Nebraska at -3, Louisiana at -4, Mississippi at -1, and Missouri at -7.

White House Response

White House spokesman Davis Ingle highlights achievements in jobs, inflation, and housing affordability, asserting no other President has accomplished more for Americans, and maintains this as just the beginning as the president’s agenda unfolds.

Looking Ahead

Loyd advises against reading too deeply into approval numbers alone, suggesting the need for broader political context. He sees similarities to the 2018 midterms when Republicans lost the House, noting post-2020 redistricting may shield today’s incumbents.