Trump’s Bold Endorsement of Netanyahu’s Political Future

Donald Trump has endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just a week before Israel’s crucial election. This endorsement could shape the nation’s future, possibly transforming it into an elected autocracy or preserving its status as a liberal democracy. Israeli citizens should not let Trump’s influence determine their choice, especially since he might dispute Netanyahu’s removal if change occurs.

Impact of Trump’s Endorsement

On Sunday, Trump lauded Netanyahu as a formidable leader during wartime and a vital ally against Iran. He implied that without Netanyahu, the U.S. may face Iran alone. Such words from an American leader about a democratic ally’s choices are unusual. Despite Trump’s popularity in Israel—stemming from policies like recognizing Jerusalem as its capital and confronting Iran—support for Israel and support for Netanyahu are distinct. They increasingly contrast.

Trump’s Global Influence

Trump’s backing shouldn’t surprise anyone given his history of supporting right-wing populists in other elections worldwide. In Poland, his administration supported nationalist Karol Nawrocki, who won. In Hungary, Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Viktor Orbán, who despite years of consolidating power, lost. Trump’s admiration for strongmen, who project themselves as national voices while bypassing checks and balances, is evident. Netanyahu aligns with this pattern.

Challenges Within Netanyahu’s Leadership

Netanyahu’s governing style resembles this populist approach, but the challenges plaguing his leadership extend further. His tenure includes significant security failures, such as the massacre and kidnapping by Hamas on October 7, 2023, due to underestimating threats. He resists inquiries that may expose leadership faults, further diminishing accountability.

While Netanyahu’s supporters celebrate military actions against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, these efforts haven’t achieved regional stability. The Gaza conflict has also tarnished Israel’s global standing.

Domestic Dilemmas

Netanyahu’s political survival hinges on contentious alliance partners. One such group, the ultra-Orthodox parties, demand military exemptions for Haredi men and maintain education gaps in key subjects, posing economic and military challenges as the Haredi population grows.

Far-right ministers like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich exacerbate tensions through settlement expansion and confrontations in the West Bank. Their actions threaten Palestinian civilians and erode Israel’s international standing. Recent attacks on a photojournalist and tourists further risk European sanctions.

Potential Consequences of External Influence

Current polls show Netanyahu’s bloc lacks a majority, possibly paving the way for a new coalition. However, Trump’s continued intervention poses risks. He might pressure potential opposition leaders Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett to join Netanyahu, bypassing democratic norms.

Trump might offer a historic normalization with Saudi Arabia if these leaders align with Netanyahu. Yet, such a deal necessitates genuine Saudi engagement, not merely U.S. promises.

Weighing Uncertain Outcomes

This scenario, while improbable, may appeal to Trump’s persona as a peacemaker. Should Trump convince Netanyahu to achieve peace with Saudi Arabia, this shift prompts reevaluation. However, the alternative outcome—resuming conflict with Iran to manipulate election results—also looms.

Eisenkot and Bennett face a critical decision: whether endorsing a diplomatic breakthrough or dealing with new conflicts justifies extending Netanyahu’s leadership. This could rank among Israel’s landmark decisions.

At present, Israelis should separate any gratitude for Trump from adherence to his influence. Their nation’s election is theirs to decide. Change demands resolve from elected leaders to uphold Israeli autonomy, free from external pressure.

Dan Perry is the former Europe-Africa and Middle East Editor for The Associated Press, and has authored two books. These views belong solely to the writer.