Potential U.S.-Iran Agreement to End War and Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Reports suggest a developing agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the ongoing conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump stated that the deal is largely negotiated. However, the specifics of the agreement’s finalization and implementation remain unclear. Trump’s comments followed discussions with Middle East allies, including separate talks with Israel. This information comes from two regional officials and a U.S. official, all speaking under anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the negotiations.

The End of the War

Since the conflict began 12 weeks ago, with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran that killed senior officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has demanded a comprehensive end to hostilities. The agreement is meant to cover all active fronts, including Lebanon, where Iran’s ally Hezbollah has engaged in conflict with Israel. Since a fragile ceasefire took hold on April 7, the cessation of war would ease tensions across a region that experienced air connects and Persian Gulf sites being attacked by Iranian missiles and drones.

The plan would enable global shipping, accounting for about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, to resume passage through the Strait of Hormuz. It would also allow the rebuilding of energy and other infrastructure in the region.

Key Elements of the Agreement

Regional officials noted the draft agreement aims to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and includes a commitment to non-interference in regional internal affairs, Iran included. This commitment addresses Iranian support for allied forces such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza, and Shia militias in Iraq. The U.S. desires for Israel to retain a free response capability to threats in Lebanon, which Iran opposes, a regional official noted. A U.S. official mentioned that the deal would assure Israel’s right to defend against imminent threats.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s nuclear program, missile capabilities, and support for armed allies prompted the U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran. Tehran’s retaliatory control over the Strait of Hormuz rapidly raised global concerns, as many vessels carrying oil, natural gas, and other goods became stranded. According to sources, the Strait would reopen gradually alongside the U.S. lifting of port blockades in Iran initiated on April 17. This blockade has hindered Iran’s oil exports and its access to much-needed cash.

Under the developing agreement, the U.S. would grant Iran oil sale permissions through sanction waivers. Sanction relief and billions in frozen funds release would undergo negotiation over 60 days, an official reported.

Iran’s Enriched Uranium

Concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and potential weapon development underpin these tensions, with the U.S. and Israel considering complex military interventions targeting its highly enriched uranium. The potential deal involves Iran renouncing its enriched uranium reserves, as per regional officials. A knowledgeable official explained that discussions over a 60-day period would determine how Iran would dispose of this reserve, possibly diluting part of it and sending the remainder to a third country, potentially Russia.

Iran currently possesses 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a short technical step from the 90% needed for weapons-grade material, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Despite this, Iran claims an inalienable right to nuclear technology, maintaining its program is peaceful. President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed readiness over state television to reassure the world of their non-nuclear weapon intentions.

Remaining Unresolved Issues

Some aspects are missing from discussions of the prospective deal, such as the status of Iran’s uranium enrichment. Iran’s missile program, which Israel has particularly targeted, is another unresolved issue. Although the U.S. and Israel embarked on the conflict with the public goal of sparking internal Iranian opposition after nationwide protests, talks of leadership change in Tehran seem absent. Also absent is any mention of a U.S. military withdrawal from the region or reparations for war damages, objectives Iran had previously raised during negotiations.