Federal authorities are investigating whether former Representative George Santos engaged in insider trading. This inquiry focuses on his activities related to a prediction market concerning his attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address in late February.
Prior to the event, Mr. Santos indicated via social media that he planned to attend the address. This statement stirred discussions among bettors on Kalshi, a prediction market, where wagers were being placed on the guest list.
In a video posted on social media platform X, Mr. Santos stated, “I’m gonna be in the gallery.” Despite this claim, he did not attend the speech. At the time of the event, Kalshi detected that Mr. Santos had bet against his own attendance. This information comes from a source familiar with the ongoing investigation who preferred to remain anonymous.
Kalshi subsequently reported the incident to the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a financial regulator responsible for oversight of prediction markets. The CFTC has started an investigation into the matter, as confirmed by another anonymous source. However, it remains unclear whether the Justice Department has also launched its own investigation.
Mr. Santos has not provided a comment following requests for response.
This investigation takes place amidst increasing scrutiny of insider trading and other abuses in prediction markets, which are rapidly growing and lucrative. Kalshi, like other prediction market companies, has connections to the president’s business interests. Notably, Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, joined the company as a “strategic advisor” early last year.

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