Atlantic Disturbance May Become Third Named Storm of 2026

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A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean is drawing attention from forecasters, with the potential to become a named storm later this week. As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) identified two areas with potential tropical development. One area shows a ‘high’ 70% chance for cyclone formation within the week.

According to the NHC, conditions are expected to improve for development soon. The system may evolve into a tropical depression during the latter part of the week as it moves across the central tropical Atlantic. Should it develop into a named storm, it would be the season’s third and named Cristobal.

“Should the high-risk area develop, the most likely intensity would be either a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Nick Arman to Newsweek.

Arman explained that while further organization could enable it to intensify, reaching hurricane status is less probable under current conditions. Warm Atlantic waters could aid its development, yet this remains unlikely at present. Forecasts suggest August 12-15 as the timeframe for potential formation.

Potential U.S. Impacts

Arman mentioned several challenges the high-risk area faces before impacting the U.S. The developing tropical wave is expected to encounter increasing wind shear near the northern Lesser Antilles this weekend into early next week. This wind shear could hinder its strengthening or even break it apart.

If the wave strengthens, it may move northward, possibly avoiding impact with the U.S. entirely. A weaker wave could bring it closer to the Southeast coast, but significant wind shear obstacles remain which would likely disrupt the system. The system is not expected to approach the U.S. until mid to late next week, allowing ample time for observation. Currently, the risk to the U.S. is low.

Another Atlantic disturbance is under watch, yet its development risk remains low. A low-pressure trough northeast of Bermuda may see limited development, moving eastward into cooler waters expected to end its development prospects by Thursday.