Evaluating the Changing Prospects of Top College Quarterbacks for the 2027 NFL Draft

A little over a month ago, Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning and Oregon Ducks QB Dante Moore were thought to be the leading picks for the 2027 NFL draft. Fast forward five weeks, and their positions have shifted significantly in the eyes of several NFL draft analysts, including ESPN’s Mel Kiper.

Previously touted as the top draft prospects, Manning and Moore are now perceived differently. In Kiper’s most recent 2027 draft big board, both quarterbacks barely make the top-25 list. Neither are listed among the top five quarterbacks, who currently include:

• Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State
• Darian Mensah, Miami
• Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
• CJ Carr, Notre Dame
• Austin Simmons, Missouri

Kiper describes Manning as ranked sixth among quarterbacks, maintaining a top-25 player status mainly due to his potential. “Manning possesses the size, mobility, and arm strength NFL teams seek in franchise quarterbacks. He can make impressive throws on the move and is a running threat with ten rushing touchdowns last season,” Kiper noted.

Manning’s inconsistency is a concern, particularly in accuracy and decision-making. Watching him play can be a mixed experience—exciting glimpses of his NFL potential are followed by questions about his consistency. Manning struggles with field vision and tends to throw off balance. Despite improved accuracy compared to 2025, further progress is necessary.

Manning’s decline is linked to his inconsistent play. At times he has shown promise, but against average college opponents, he has not always excelled.

In contrast, Moore’s lower ranking stems more from an injury rather than his field performance. Following a concussion against USC, his draft prospects have been affected. This season, Moore has completed 69.7% of his passes for 926 yards, with nine touchdowns and no interceptions. His return and performance in the College Football Playoff could still elevate him as a potential top-15 pick in April.

Moore is impressive at peak performance, showcasing varying arm angles, mechanical precision, accurate deep throws, and effortless delivery due to strong arm strength. He also offers some scrambling capability. However, he needs to demonstrate leadership in high-stakes games. His standout game against Penn State in 2025 raised expectations for 2026, but he struggled to consistently replicate that level against leading teams.