Kean Jr.’s Health Absence Shakes Up New Jersey Congressional Race

New Jersey Republican Representative Tom Kean Jr. faces decreasing prospects in the upcoming November general election due to an ongoing, unexplained medical absence. Kean’s earlier narrow lead in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District has diminished, making the race a toss-up. Since March 5, Kean has been absent from Congress, missing over 100 votes. In an April statement on X, Kean mentioned dealing with ‘a personal medical issue.’

In the upcoming primary on Tuesday, Kean is running unopposed for the Republican ticket. On the Democratic side, several candidates aim for a seat they seek to reclaim. Among the Democrats running are former Small Business Administration official Michael Roth, former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett, businessman Brian Varela, and ICU doctor Tina Shah.

Polls and Betting Odds

According to the prediction market platform Polymarket, the Democratic Party has a 75% chance of winning the seat, whereas Republicans have 14%. Prior to Kean’s last public appearance on March 5, he had a 46% chance against 43% for the Democrats. But by March 5, the Democrats’ odds rose to 55% with Republicans in the mid-40s. Another platform, Kalshi, shows Democratic odds at 78%, with Republicans at 22% as of Tuesday midday. In early March, these figures were closer at 59% for Democrats and 46% for Republicans.

An internal poll by 314 Action Fund, supporting Shah, shows her narrowly leading Kean 46% to 43% in a potential general election matchup. When provided more information about candidates, Shah leads 49% to 43%. This survey took place from May 24 to 26, though the margin of error was undisclosed.

Kean’s Absence and Congressional Actions

Kean’s ongoing absence has stirred conversations. While Kean’s office cited a ‘personal health matter’ with no return date, opponents claim the public deserves more clarity. He last voted on March 5 in support of the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act but remained absent when Congress reconvened on March 16.

Kean assured constituents on April 27, stating, ‘I want to thank my constituents and colleagues for their patience as I address a personal medical issue. My doctors continue to assure me that my recovery will be complete and that I will be back to the job I love very soon.’ House Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed Kean expects a full recovery and return.

Democratic Focus on Kean’s Absence

Democrats have used Kean’s absence as a focal point in their campaign, questioning representation in the district. New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District is notably competitive; Donald Trump narrowly won this area in the 2024 election. The district has seen shifts between Republican and Democrat control in recent midterms. Democrat Tom Malinowski won against GOP incumbent Leonard Lance in 2018, only to lose to Kean in 2022.

Following the primary on June 2, the general election will occur on November 3, 2026. The district, home to diverse areas like the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, remains a focal point of political interest.