Poll Shows Democratic Candidate Jolly Leading Republican Donalds in Florida Governor Race

Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is currently behind Democratic candidate David Jolly in the race for Florida’s governorship. A new poll from Change Research, which is aligned with Democrats, highlights this trend. This development may be positive for Florida Democrats, who have struggled in recent elections as the state leans more towards Republicans.

Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, is term-limited and cannot run for reelection in 2026. He won his second term decisively in 2022, but new polling suggests the race to succeed him might be more competitive than anticipated.

Former President Donald Trump has expressed strong support for Donalds, describing him as a ‘TOTAL WINNER’ and fully endorsing his bid for governor. Trump previously won Florida by 13 points in the 2024 presidential election against Kamala Harris. No Democrat has held Florida’s governorship in over two decades.

Reacting to the poll, Donalds’ campaign dismissed its validity. Gates McGavick of Donalds’ team commented skeptically, and another campaign associate, Ryan Smith, criticized the poll as biased.

Key Details

The Change Research survey shows Jolly, who transitioned from being a Republican congressman to a Democratic candidate, leading Donalds. Jolly’s campaign focuses on affordability issues related to insurance, housing, and healthcare. Donalds positions himself as a conservative aiming to advance Trump’s policies and tackle illegal immigration.

The poll indicates Jolly leads Donalds in a potential general election by 47 percent to 42 percent. Among likely voters, Jolly’s lead increases to 49 percent compared to Donalds’ 43 percent. The survey included 1,273 registered voters, 1,015 of whom are likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent. Jolly has 94 percent support among Democrats, whereas Donalds has 77 percent among Republicans.

Additional Polling Data

Another Change Research poll also places Jolly ahead of Donalds, 46 percent to 42 percent. Conducted in mid-May among 2,070 registered voters, this poll has a 2.3 percent margin of error.

Conversely, a survey by Emerson College Polling conducted at the end of March showed Donalds leading with 44 percent against Jolly’s 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided. This poll surveyed 1,125 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.