South Carolina Gubernatorial Primary: Republican Dynamics

Representative Nancy Mace is trailing other Republican candidates in the South Carolina gubernatorial primary polls, with Election Day approaching. Mace is behind in most public surveys, reflecting divisions within Republicans regarding her ideological shifts and rocky relationship with former President Donald Trump. This race is a critical test for the GOP’s direction, particularly in determining whether conservative Republicans will elect a candidate who has broken from Trump, in contrast to his endorsed candidate, Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette.

Key Republican Candidates

The race includes several candidates aiming to succeed Republican Governor Henry McMaster, who cannot run again due to term limits. Notable candidates include Mace, Evette, Representative Ralph Norman, businessman Rom Reddy, and Attorney General Alan Wilson. Each campaign has been reached for comment via email.

South Carolina Governor Race: Final Polls

The polls indicate a tight race leading up to the June 9 primary. If no candidate garners over 50 percent support, a runoff election between the top two candidates will occur on June 23. Recent surveys include Co/Efficient (June 2-4, 879 likely voters, MOE of +/- 3.31 percent), The Tyson Group (June 1-3, 500 likely voters, MOE of +/- 4.4 percent), and The Citadel (May 21-31, 600 likely voters, MOE of +/- 4.5 percent).

Many candidates focus on similar issues, such as eliminating state income tax and enhancing government efficiency, said Robert Oldendick, a professor of political science at the University of South Carolina. Evette and Wilson enjoy high name recognition as statewide officials.

Mace’s Relationship with Trump

Mace’s previous support for Trump and subsequent actions in Congress have impacted her campaign. Initially a strong Trump ally, Mace criticized him after the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. Although she did not vote to impeach Trump, her comments affected their rapport.

Trump did not endorse Mace for her 2022 reelection bid, supporting Katie Arrington instead. Nevertheless, Mace won renomination with 53 percent of the vote, leading to a softening of their conflict. By 2023, Mace endorsed Trump for the presidential race, focusing on reversing what she perceived as damage by President Joe Biden’s administration. Despite improved relations, Trump endorsed Evette for the gubernatorial primary, citing her loyalty.

Prediction Markets and Election Outlook

Prediction markets favor Evette’s nomination, with Trump’s May 29 endorsement boosting her chances. On platforms like Kalshi, Evette holds a 77 percent chance of winning, Wilson 17 percent, and Mace 4.3 percent. Polymarket reflects similar sentiment.

Prediction markets involve traders buying and selling contracts linked to political outcomes and events. These markets represent trader sentiment at specific moments, reacting to polls, fundraising, and political trends, though they may not always predict accurately.

Democrats and South Carolina’s Political Landscape

Although Democrats feel optimistic about the 2026 midterms due to Trump’s declining national approval, the South Carolina race is not expected to be competitive in November. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider it safe or solid for Republicans, with Kalshi and Polymarket showing Republicans have over a 90 percent chance of holding the seat in November.

Oldendick believes Republicans will maintain their advantage, given their fundraising and name recognition. Despite national trends favoring Democrats, the state remains steadfastly Republican, with the last Democratic gubernatorial win in 1998 and backing Trump by 18 points in 2024.