A recent study highlights the significant economic repercussions in Chicago due to immigration enforcement raids starting early 2025. The report, conducted by the University of Illinois Chicago, details that these actions drained over $1.26 billion from local businesses.
The methodology involved analyzing anonymous cellphone GPS data to track movement between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods within Cook County. The data revealed that the usual interactions between these areas drastically declined after President Donald Trump assumed office on January 20, 2025. This drop followed widespread rumors and ICE raids targeting immigrant communities.
Economic Impact
Professor Matt Wilson, a co-author of the study, emphasized the broader economic impact beyond immigrant neighborhoods. Retail shops and restaurants in non-immigrant areas suffered an estimated $1.26 billion loss, while the state of Illinois faced a $107 million reduction in tax revenue.
Wilson explained, “We see a 9% drop in retail and a 10% drop in restaurant visits, and this persisted for about a year. Moreover, the behavior patterns did not revert even after a year.” He noted that Chicago commerce is yet to recover fully from the aftermath.
Effects on Small Businesses
Small businesses, experiencing a 10% decline in foot traffic over a year, endured substantial financial losses. The study challenges stereotypes regarding immigrant community isolation by demonstrating their active participation in the broader economy. Wilson remarked, “These communities are significantly integrated and make frequent trips across the county.”
Public Fear and Panic
The fear was palpable in the period surrounding the 2025 inauguration. A Chicago waitress named Caridad shared her apprehensions, “I need to shop for groceries, but what if ICE is there?” She requested anonymity due to fear of being targeted. The administration’s immigration policies led to nationwide arrests, with 65,000 people currently in detention.
White House Response
In response to the study, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis stated, “Removing these criminals enhances community safety for both businesses and customers.” She referenced that nearly 70% of ICE arrests involved individuals charged or convicted of crimes. However, current ICE statistics reveal that around 70% of detainees lack criminal convictions.
The new report aligns with existing research confirming the severe economic disruptions caused by extensive immigration enforcement. For instance, Minneapolis recorded economic damage near $700 million due to ICE activities, with small businesses alone losing over $81 million in January.