Collins and Jackson Neck-and-Neck in Maine Senate Race

Recent polls indicate a close contest between Democrat Troy Jackson and incumbent Senator Susan Collins in the race for one of Maine’s Senate seats. As they gear up for the first of four debates before the November 3 election, both candidates face a tight competition.

Jackson joined the race after Graham Platner withdrew in July following a sexual assault allegation he denies. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former Maine Senate president, has mostly held a lead over Collins in surveys. However, recent polls by the New York Times and firm co/efficient show Collins slightly ahead, though results stay within margins of error. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen Collins narrow Jackson’s lead from over 70% in September to 59%.

Tuesday’s debate offers both candidates a platform to highlight their achievements and critique their opponents. Collins will address her links to Donald Trump and a federal corruption probe, while Jackson needs to gain public trust within a short timeframe as he has been in the race for less than three months.

“Newsweek has contacted the campaigns outside of regular working hours for comment.”

Poll Insights

A Marist Poll released Tuesday shows Jackson leading Collins 51% to 47%, close to the 3.8% margin of error. Among independents, Jackson leads 52% to 45%, likely helped by anti-Trump sentiment, with the president’s job approval at 40% among those polled. Additionally, 44% of Maine voters say their vote opposes Trump, 16% support him, and 39% claim he doesn’t influence their decision significantly.

While Jackson holds a lead in this poll, 57% believe Collins will win, compared to 41% predicting Jackson’s victory. A CBS News poll last week showed a 50-50 split between the candidates. Collins’s experience benefits her with 62% endorsing her background, while Jackson is seen as more likely to bring change, with figures flipped.

Notably, 10% of voters are still undecided and could change their minds before election day.

Debate Significance

Tuesday’s debate is critical for both Collins and Jackson to influence voters and dispel doubts. Recognition remains a challenge for Jackson, who only entered the race on July 25. Collins, one of the longest-serving U.S. senators, retains an advantage.

A co/efficient poll from last Wednesday indicates 44% view Collins favorably while 47% do not. Jackson has 36% favorability, with 47% viewing him unfavorably, and 16% with no opinion. A New York Times/Siena Poll found 6% hadn’t heard of Jackson, and 4% were undecided about him.

“It feels a little bit like the Kamala race from 2024. You get in this late, it’s really hard to tell your story,” Bev Uhlenhake, former chair of the Maine Democratic Party, told NBC News.

Collins too faces challenges, particularly opposition attempts to link her to Trump. Though she has distanced herself on issues like Canadian tariffs, her vote for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and a ProPublica report about alleged FBI investigation add pressure.

Campaign Developments

Both candidates continue to leverage perceived strengths in recent days. A Democratic super PAC invested $3.4 million in a ProPublica-focused ad, as reported by the Portland Press Herald. Collins’s campaign criticizes Jackson’s inexperience in their ads.

President Trump indicated plans to include Maine among his campaign stops. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders intends to rally for Jackson in Maine on October 10 and 11 in Bangor, Lewiston, and Biddeford.

The first debate takes place at 7 p.m. ET in Portland, broadcast live on CBS 13 News.