Tightening Race for New Hampshire Senate Seat

As the midterm elections approach in four weeks, Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John E. Sununu are locked in a tightening race for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll reveals Pappas leads with 49% support, while Sununu trails at 44%. This five-point advantage is a decrease from last month’s poll, where Pappas led by 11 points, 45% to 34%.

With Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen retiring, the seat is open for the upcoming general election. The Cook Political Report has labeled the race as a toss-up. Historically, midterms have challenged the party in power, often resulting in seat losses for the president’s party. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.

In the 2024 presidential election, former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won New Hampshire over President Donald Trump by a margin of less than three percent. It has been over 15 years since the state elected a Republican senator. Newsweek contacted both Sununu’s and Pappas’ campaigns for comment.

Details from the Latest Poll

The new poll indicates that 3% of voters would support Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante, and 4% remain undecided.

Pappas secures 89% of the Democratic vote, captures 15% of Republican support, and claims 40% of non-affiliated voters. Sununu has 84% backing from Republicans, 8% from Democrats, and 44% from unaffiliated voters. Pappas has a substantial lead among women, with 53% favoring him over Sununu’s 33%, while 53% of men prefer Sununu to Pappas, who holds 42% support.

Among voters aged 65 and older, Pappas holds a notable lead at 58% against Sununu’s 39%. Sununu, who previously served as a Senator from 2003 to 2009, is more popular with voters under 40 years of age.

The poll was conducted between October 2 and October 4, surveying 979 likely New Hampshire voters, with a margin of error of 3%. News-rating website AllSides classifies Rasmussen Reports as “Lean Right,” indicating a moderate alignment with conservative viewpoints.

Craig Agranoff, a political professor at Florida Atlantic University, commented that while Republicans have an opportunity in New Hampshire, it remains narrow. Sununu’s ability to reduce Pappas’ double-digit lead to five points aligns with the Cook Report’s toss-up rating. Factors like the Sununu name, ticket splitting, and outside financial support provide Republicans with a chance in a state known for mixed voting patterns. A five-point deficit with a month remaining suggests a competitive race.

“The Senate race is critical beyond New Hampshire. Republicans need this seat or another similar win to offset potential losses elsewhere. If Sununu continues to close the gap, it will be crucial for the Republican majority. However, if Pappas’ lead stabilizes near five points, it serves as a warning rather than a clear path,” Agranoff explained.

Insights from Other Polls

An additional survey conducted by the University of New Hampshire shows Pappas leading with 50% compared to Sununu’s 42%, with Laplante at 2% and another 4% undecided. This poll surveyed 1,418 likely voters between September 17 and September 21, with a margin of error of 2.6%.

An August poll had shown Sununu with a slight advantage at 45% versus Pappas at 43%, with 5% supporting another candidate and 7% undecided. Conducted between August 20 and August 24 among 1,878 likely voters, this poll had a margin of error of 2.3% and results were within the margin of error, considering it a statistical tie.

A co/efficient poll from last month recorded a deadlock between Pappas and Sununu, each with 46% support, while 9% were undecided. Favorites and opinions of both candidates were closely watched, as Pappas held a 37% favorability with 51% unfavorable. Sununu had a 41% favorability against a 47% unfavorable rating. This poll surveyed 958 likely voters from September 9 to September 11 with a 3.15% margin of error.