Steve Hilton, a Republican candidate for governor in California, is under scrutiny from his party due to a provocative campaign ad. The advertisement aims to bridge a significant polling gap with Democrat Xavier Becerra as the election nears.
Ad Sparks Bipartisan Backlash
Described as sexually suggestive, the ad features two young women on a bed with an LGBTQ+ flag in the background. One woman appears hesitant before the other encourages her to ‘try something new.’ It becomes clear they discuss voting as one guides the other to vote for Hilton and seal a mail-in ballot. This ad has ignited criticism from various political figures.
Michael Gates, a Republican attorney general candidate and ally of Hilton, denounced the ad. He stated he was neither consulted nor informed before the ad’s release. Gates emphasized that he opposes using young women as political tools and promised to protect young women and parental rights in California.
Sonja Shaw, running for state superintendent of public instruction, criticized Hilton and the California Republican Party for supporting the ad. She labeled the content as ‘creepy’ and claimed it exemplified reasons for people leaving the party.
Democrat Rep. Robert Garcia labeled the ad ‘bizarre and desperate,’ suggesting Hilton prioritized sensationalism over addressing Californians’ real concerns.
Hilton’s Defense and Polling Performance
In defense of the ad, Hilton described it as a humorous and provocative communication strategy. Despite his justification, the controversy surfaces as Hilton attempts to become the first Republican governor in California in two decades.
Polling results consistently show Becerra leading Hilton. A UC Berkeley poll from mid-September indicated Becerra with a 25-point advantage, at 58% to Hilton’s 33%. The margin of error was 2 points. An August poll had tighter results, with Becerra leading 55% to Hilton’s 37%.
Similarly, a SurveyUSA poll during the same period placed Becerra ahead 55% to 33% with a 4.6-point margin of error. A separate survey found Becerra leading at 54% against Hilton’s 36%. The Public Policy Institute of California’s early September survey mirrored these findings, showing Becerra at 60% and Hilton at 38%.
Challenges Ahead for Hilton
Despite setbacks, Hilton continues to promote his agenda focusing on affordability, taxes, and living costs. In a debate with Becerra, Hilton encouraged voters to reconsider the current political monopoly while Becerra linked Hilton to Donald Trump.
Betting markets present Hilton with slim odds of victory. As of a recent Sunday, Polymarket gave Becerra a 96% probability of winning, compared to Hilton’s 4%. However, these markets reflect trader sentiment, not voter preferences.
Becerra maintains a steady lead across polls as the election date, November 3, draws near. Hilton and Becerra engaged in a debate on September 30, covering subjects such as taxes, immigration, and artificial intelligence.

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