Democrats See South Carolina as Potential Senate Pickup

Democrat Annie Andrews is closely trailing Republican Senator Darline Graham by just one point in a new poll for the South Carolina Senate race. The poll, published on Friday, comes as Democrats view South Carolina as a promising target for gains in the 2026 midterm elections.

Political Landscape and Polling Insights

South Carolina, historically a Republican stronghold, supported President Donald Trump by nearly 18 points in the 2024 election. However, with Trump’s approval rating waning, Democrats are seeking to broaden their Senate prospects for the November 3 election. Traditional Republican states such as South Carolina, Kansas, and Mississippi are under Democratic scrutiny, along with states already considered battlegrounds such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.

Darline Graham filled the Senate seat after her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, passed away. She secured the party’s nomination with Trump’s endorsement. In the latest InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters, Graham has 46% support while 45% favor Andrews. This is within the poll’s margin of error of 2.83 percentage points. Other candidates captured 5% of voter support, with 4% undecided. The poll was conducted from September 28 to 29, 2026.

Comparative Polls

Another poll by the Trafalgar Group, involving 1,087 likely voters from September 23 to 25, also shows a slight lead for Graham. She received 43% compared to Andrews’ 42%, with a margin of error of 2.9 points. Earlier, InsiderAdvantage’s poll of 1,200 likely voters from September 8 to 9 showed Graham ahead by 2 points, 45% to 43%, staying within the 2.83 point margin.

This reflects a shift to the left from the 2024 results, where Trump received 58% in South Carolina against Kamala Harris’ 40%. Additionally, Democrats note a national trend. A recent YouGov and The Economist survey indicates a 15-point advantage for Democrats on the generic ballot, polling 53% to 38% among likely voters. This survey included 1,003 likely voters from September 25 to 28.

Impact of National Trends

Nationwide, Trump’s approval has slipped due to economic dissatisfaction. Democrats argue this trend could extend their reach into conservative territories like South Carolina.

In 2020, polls hinted at a narrow race between Jaime Harrison and Lindsey Graham. Data for Progress showed Graham leading by 3 points against Harrison, 49% to 46%, among 880 likely voters from October 27 to November 1, with a 3.3-point error margin.

Comparably, a Morning Consult poll had Graham leading by 2 points. It surveyed 904 likely voters from October 22 to 31, 2020, with a 3-point margin.

Challenges for Democrats

Despite closer races in polls, South Carolina remains challenging for Democrats. The state last voted for a Democratic president in 1976 and has consistently given Republicans clear victories. In previous elections, Trump and other Republican candidates have won by significant margins.

South Carolina’s last Democratic senator was elected in 1998. The state has a strong Democratic base among Black voters and urban areas yet faces opposition in rural areas, where GOP support remains robust.

Trump’s approval in South Carolina is declining, with 50% disapproving and 44% approving, according to Civiqs.

Outlook and Voter Information

Forecasts generally favor Graham. The Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball views it as Safe Republican. Upcoming polls will be crucial to understanding voter sentiment before the midterms.

For voter registration in South Carolina, deadlines are approaching. In-person registration ends October 2 at 5 p.m., while the online, fax, or email deadline is October 4 at 11:59 p.m. Mail registration must be postmarked by October 5. Early voting is from October 19 to 31, with any registered voter eligible to vote early in their county. The deadline for absentee ballot applications is October 23 at 5 p.m.