Iowa Senate Race: Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson

Democrat Josh Turek Leads in New Poll

A recent internal poll indicates Democrat Josh Turek holds a slight edge over Republican Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race. With Iowa becoming a Republican stronghold, Democrats aim to make this year’s Senate race competitive, fueled by former President Donald Trump’s decreasing national approval ratings.

The poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group and first reported by Politico, shows Turek with a 2-point lead. Turek garnered 47% support compared to Hinson’s 45%. Notably, the poll reveals Trump’s popularity is declining in Iowa, with 52% holding an unfavorable view and 45% favorable.

Tightly Contested Race

Polls suggest a close race. A Public Policy Polling survey for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee found both candidates tied at 46%. An Echelon Insights poll saw Turek with a narrow 46% to Hinson’s 45%. However, earlier polling from GBAO showed Hinson ahead with 47% to Turek’s 43%.

Prediction Markets and Candidate Background

Despite recent polls showing Turek in the lead, prediction markets suggest Hinson holds an advantage, with a 58% chance on Kalshi and 61% on Polymarket. Prediction markets fluctuate based on polling, fundraising, and political trends.

Hinson, a current U.S. Representative for northeastern Iowa, has Trump’s support in her bid. Before politics, she was a journalist and served in the Iowa House. Turek, a state legislator, previously represented a southwestern Iowa district. He has a background in wheelchair basketball across four Paralympics.

Iowa’s Political Shift

Historically a battleground, Iowa now leans Republican, with Trump winning by substantial margins in recent elections. This shift reflects broader Midwest trends where white working-class voters increasingly favor Republicans. However, issues like Trump’s tariffs and high gas prices might affect Republican prospects.

Democrats’ Senate Aspirations

While Democrats aim to reclaim the Senate, it presents challenges. They must flip four seats to secure majority control. Key targets include North Carolina and Maine, alongside defending seats in Georgia and Michigan. Despite strategic focus, prediction markets currently suggest Republicans may retain Senate control.