Massachusetts Senate Primary: Markey Leads Moulton in Polls Amid Calls for New Leadership

Senator Ed Markey leads Representative Seth Moulton in two recent polls of the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts. Markey, the incumbent, faces Moulton, who advocates for new leadership. An anti-incumbent wave has impacted Democratic primaries before the midterms, with political newcomers defeating several veteran members of Congress.

Markey, aged 80, is challenged by 47-year-old Moulton, who argues for generational change. The age of top Democratic politicians has been questioned in recent years. Concern about former President Joe Biden’s decision to seek a second term increased after a debate with President Donald Trump in June 2024, leading to Biden’s withdrawal. This debate marked a significant point in Trump’s campaign to regain the presidency. Despite a desire for youth in leadership, polls from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Suffolk University indicate that Markey is in a strong position to overcome Moulton’s challenge.

Moulton’s campaign highlights Markey’s age, whereas Markey emphasizes ideological and policy differences, presenting himself as better aligned with voters on issues such as healthcare. As one of the most progressive senators, Markey contrasts with Moulton’s moderate stance, especially regarding transgender rights and Medicare for All. This ideological focus distinguishes this primary from others where challengers have often been more progressive than incumbents. Markey supporters believe this ideological dimension could favor him in Massachusetts.

Markey’s Lead in Recent Polls

Markey has maintained a steady lead over Moulton, currently a representative from Massachusetts’ North Shore. Markey has served in the Senate since 2013, previously being in Congress since 1976, while Moulton has been in the House since 2015.

A UMass Amherst poll found Markey leading Moulton by 28 points, 60 percent to 32 percent, among 800 registered voters, 445 of whom were Democratic primary voters, from August 5-12, 2026. A Suffolk poll saw a narrower lead, with Markey leading 52 percent to 38 percent, among 500 likely voters from August 13-16, 2026, sponsored by The Boston Globe.

Tatishe Nteta, a political science professor and director of the UMass poll, indicated Moulton faces an uphill battle to unseat Markey. Moulton’s primary argument is for generational change, but Nteta suggests this isn’t resonating with Democratic voters.

Taylor Hebble, Moulton’s spokesperson, criticized public polling as unreliable, citing discrepancies in states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Hebble argued that Markey’s recent actions show Massachusetts is ready for change.

Reasons Markey Might Prevail

In states like New York and Colorado, younger challengers often unseat older incumbents, but experts note differences in this race. Markey, seen by many as more progressive, emphasizes his credentials as a progressive candidate.

Markey advocates progressive policies such as the Green New Deal. Moulton, however, has faced scrutiny for opposing the inclusion of transgender athletes in girls’ sports.

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor, stated that Markey, though older, benefits in Massachusetts’s progressive context. Moulton, having served for a decade, doesn’t appear as much of an outsider. Experts highlight Markey’s past electoral success in facing challengers from younger generations. In 2020, Joe Kennedy III’s call for generational change didn’t prevent Markey’s nearly 10-point victory. Markey unified progressive voters, garnering endorsements from prominent progressives and building support among younger Democrats.

Moulton is well-known, previously catching national attention with a 2020 presidential run. His policies face challenges among state progressives, particularly comments on transgender athletes in athletics.

Additional Polls and Moulton’s Path

Additional polling indicates a closer contest. A University of New Hampshire survey gave Markey a 6-point lead, while an Emerson College poll showed a 5-point lead. Panagopoulos believes Moulton still has a chance if he effectively engages his voter base, as turnout heavily influences primary outcomes. His campaign must capitalize on strengths, such as the generational change rhetoric.

Nteta remarked that politics have surprising turns, leaving room for shifts in the campaign’s final stages. Turner could rise if seen as more engaged or if he attracts moderate voters in upcoming debates.

Upcoming Primaries and the General Election

The primary will occur on September 1, 2026. Attorney John Deaton is the assumed Republican nominee, but the general election appears less competitive. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won Massachusetts by 25 points over Trump in 2024, and current analyses suggest a favorable environment for Democrats, given Trump’s decreasing approval ratings. Political forecasters consider the Massachusetts race secure for Democrats.