Poll Reveals Challenges for Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s Second Term Bid

As candidates begin filing petitions for Chicago’s upcoming municipal election on February 23, Mayor Brandon Johnson’s chances for a second term appear uncertain. A recent poll indicates widespread disapproval of his job performance among Chicago residents, with little support for his reelection bid.

The survey, which included 1,108 adult residents and 935 likely voters, showed that 53% disapprove of Johnson’s performance, while only 22% approve. Among likely voters, 55% expressed a lack of enthusiasm for Johnson’s candidacy. Even among those who supported him four years ago, only 25% consider him their first choice for the 2027 mayoral race.

This poll was conducted by the NORC at the University of Chicago for the Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation, between September 13 and 23. The margin of error stands at 4.11% for all adults and 4.47% for likely voters.

Johnson, a former organizer with the Chicago Teachers Union and a member of the Cook County Board, previously defeated incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot in February 2023, winning the runoff against Paul Vallas by a narrow margin. Despite this victory, his first term has faced controversies and internal disruptions.

The mayor has offended many aldermen, lost some political allies, and has been criticized by leaders in Springfield. He attributes these challenges to efforts by big-business interests to undermine his agenda for working-class citizens. Johnson’s approval ratings have remained below 30%, with disapproval ratings consistently above 50%, except for a dip to 49% earlier this year.

In various parts of Chicago, disapproval ratings vary. On the Northwest Side, it peaks at 64.5%, drops to 44% in his West Side base, and stands at 49% on the South Side. Despite a 53% disapproval rate on the Southwest Side, this area reported Johnson’s highest approval at 25%. Approximately 33% of residents in the West Side community of Austin expressed no opinion on his job performance.

Race remains a significant factor in Chicago politics. Only 24% of Black residents approve of Johnson’s performance, while 46.5% disapprove. Among white residents, 61% disapprove, with disapproval at 49.5% among Hispanic residents.

Only 32% of likely voters exhibit enthusiasm for Johnson’s reelection. Among his 2023 supporters, only 25% still consider him their top choice for mayor. The poll explored other potential candidates, noting that Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias received support from about a quarter of likely voters. Johnson followed at 14%, with no other candidates reaching double-digit support. Among Johnson’s former voters, 22% favor Giannoulias.

The poll also examined Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza, who is running for mayor without seeking reelection to her state position. Giannoulias garners excitement from 59% of likely voters, while Mendoza receives 46% support, though 34% of respondents remain undecided.

Johnson retains the backing of the Chicago Teachers Union, providing him a significant volunteer base for his campaign efforts. The candidate petition filing period opens this Monday, managed by the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. Candidates filing petitions by 9 a.m. Monday can enter a lottery for a top ballot position. Those filing at the close of the period on October 26 will enter a lottery for the last position. Nominating petitions require at least 12,500 valid signatures from registered voters, although candidates typically submit more to withstand challenges.