Republicans Gear Up for Midterms Amid Trump Factor

Though President Donald Trump isn’t running for office this year, his influence will loom large over the upcoming midterm elections. With just six months left until Election Day, Trump remains a pivotal force in the Republican Party’s efforts to maintain control of Congress.

The Democratic Momentum

Over the past six months, Republicans have faced setbacks, losing several elections by significant margins. Democrats are feeling buoyed by these recent victories, partly attributing them to Trump’s low approval ratings and his struggles with issues such as high costs of living and the ongoing conflict with Iran. Traditionally, the party holding the presidency tends to lose congressional seats during the midterms, posing an additional challenge for Republicans.

Reasons for Republican Optimism

Despite these challenges, Republicans find grounds for hope. NBC News surveyed over 120 members of the Republican National Committee (RNC) and GOP activists to gauge their outlook. Approximately 30 interviewees expressed confidence that the party can retain its majority in Congress. They emphasized the need for strong national leadership to thwart the potential Democratic surge.

Joseph Wood, chair of the Arkansas Republican Party, remarked, “The 2026 midterms will hinge on who is delivering real results for the American people.”

Republicans gained an advantage after court decisions favored them in the redistricting battle, likely reducing Democrats’ chances of securing more congressional seats. The GOP’s fundraising efforts have also outpaced those of their Democratic counterparts, fueling optimism that gas prices might decline if Trump can resolve the Iran conflict.

Policy Challenges

The war in Iran, initially thought by Trump to last four to five weeks, has dragged on, complicating his approval ratings and dividing his “America First” base focused on domestic issues like immigration. A recent PBS/Marist poll indicated that only 33% approve of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict, with 35% approving of his economic management.

However, many Republicans remain unfazed by current polling, believing there’s ample time for public opinion to shift. Janet Fogarty, an RNC committeewoman from Massachusetts, expressed confidence that voters’ focus will sharpen closer to the election.

Midterm Strategy and Concerns

Trump’s attention has not heavily concentrated on the 2026 midterms, as he’s been engaged with projects like renovating sites in Washington and other legislative interests. Trump is pushing for the SAVE America Act, which requires voters to show proof of citizenship when registering for federal elections. Although he emphasized its importance, the bill remains stalled in the Senate.

Party officials believe focusing on the “Working Families Tax Cut” — a key Trump administration policy — is crucial. This legislation, originally known as a sweeping tax cut, has been well-received in states like Michigan, where no tax on overtime work is particularly popular.

Financial Advantage

In an unusual shift, Republicans currently enjoy a financial advantage. National GOP organizations hold $843 million in cash compared to $304 million for similar Democratic counterparts. While a cash surplus doesn’t guarantee success, it does enable more robust campaign efforts.

The Trump Base Dilemma

A long-standing concern is motivating Trump’s voters to participate in elections when he is not on the ballot. Trump has a unique ability to engage low-propensity voters, significantly aiding Republican wins. However, past elections have shown that these voters often stay home when Trump isn’t up for election.

To address this, the GOP is testing strategies such as targeting outreach campaigns, exemplified by efforts in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District race. A blend of mailing campaigns and tele-town hall rallies aimed to boost voter turnout, yielding positive results.

Many Republicans worry about distractions such as Trump’s pursuit of personal projects or symbolic endeavors, like the unveiling of a Trump statue, diverting attention from critical issues like the economy.

Ultimately, the midterm elections remain intertwined with Trump’s towering presence and influence. Even if not officially on the ballot, his impact will be felt.