Close Race in LA Mayor Election as Poll Shows No Clear Leader

A recent poll by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times reveals a tight race for the Los Angeles mayoral election. Current Mayor Karen Bass, Councilmember Nithya Raman, and reality TV star Spencer Pratt are competing closely as the June primary approaches. Bass is at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22%, putting all three contenders within the survey’s margin of error, indicating no definitive leader.

Previously, Bass held a more comfortable lead according to other polls. Yet, the new figures suggest turnout will play a crucial role in determining who advances to a November runoff. Prediction markets maintain a preference for Bass, with trading platforms like Polymarket giving her approximately a 71% chance of making it to the runoff, while Pratt and Raman lag behind.

“It’s a choice between a Mayor who reduced homelessness and hired more officers, a Councilwoman who voted repeatedly to allow encampments near schools and to shrink the LAPD, or a reality TV villain. We will win,” said Doug Herman, a Bass adviser, in an email to Newsweek.

The newly released poll by UC Berkeley, conducted between May 19 and 24, sampled 1,913 registered voters, 1,351 identified as likely voters, and has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points. According to Mark DiCamillo, director of Berkeley IGS polls, the race’s outcome will hinge on voter turnout due to the candidates’ broad yet distinct support bases.

The Campaign Context

Key issues influencing voters include homelessness, housing costs, and public safety. Pratt capitalizes on his criticism of Bass’s handling of past disasters, such as the 2025 Palisades Fire, using AI-generated videos to promote his campaign. Raman targets Bass’s record on homelessness and general governance.

Comparative Poll Analysis

Earlier polls painted a different picture. Emerson College’s survey in early May had Bass at 30%, Pratt at 22%, and Raman at 19%. March data from UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times showed Bass at 25%, Raman at 17%, and Pratt at 14%, with over 25% undecided.

Further, a Tavern Research poll from May 1–4 placed Bass at 22%, Pratt at 18%, and Raman at 16%. The UCLA Luskin poll in March showed Bass leading at 25% against Pratt and Raman, both in their low teens, with 40% undecided. These numbers indicate a steady lead for Bass, while Raman and Pratt have gradually gained traction.

Prediction Market Insights

Prediction markets favor Bass despite recent poll tightening. At writing time, Polymarket trades estimate Bass’s chances at 71%, Pratt’s at 25%, and Raman’s at 6%. Kalshi gives Bass 62%, Pratt 22%, and Raman 17%. These figures suggest a consensus that Bass will reach the runoff, though markets and polls differ on the second-place battle.

Pratt’s Celebrity Factor

The election has also attracted celebrity attention, with Spencer Pratt’s sister, Stephanie Pratt, retracting earlier criticisms of her brother. She acknowledged his dedication to uncovering truths about fire management mistakes, blending celebrity dynamics with policy discussions.

What Lies Ahead

If no candidate wins outright in the June 2 primary, the top two will continue to a November runoff. With decreasing undecided voters and support centralizing among leading candidates, turnout in the final election days could determine the ultimate outcome.