Texas Senate Race: James Talarico vs Ken Paxton

Democratic candidate James Talarico is gaining noteworthy support from voters of former President Donald Trump for the Texas Senate race. An analysis by Big Data Poll suggests Talarico, a State Representative, has more backing from Trump’s voters than his Republican counterpart, Ken Paxton, does from Kamala Harris’s supporters.

Strategic Implications for Democrats

Democrats aim to overturn Senate and House control in the upcoming midterm elections to hinder Trump’s legislative agenda during his second term. Winning a Senate seat in Texas could be a strategic win, given its historical preference for Republican candidates. The Democratic Party last succeeded in Texas’s Senate race in 1988.

Big Data Poll conducted a survey of 698 Texas voters from September 24 to 26. The poll revealed Talarico leading with 44.6% support compared to Paxton’s 41.6%, excluding undecided leaners. Impressively, Talarico has attracted 15% of Trump voters from the 2024 election, whereas Paxton only has 4.3% of Harris’s voters.

Comparison with Other Polls

Another poll by SoCal Strategies also notes Talarico’s strong support. Conducted from September 12 to 13 among 649 voters, it found 95% of Harris voters favor Talarico along with 14% of Trump’s supporters that year. Conversely, Paxton received 84% support from Trump’s base and merely 4% from Harris’s.

The SoCal Strategies poll gave Talarico a slight edge at 50% against Paxton’s 45%. Governor Greg Abbott, facing Democrat Gina Hinojosa, showed better performance among Trump supporters, with 89% supporting Abbott and 13% backing Hinojosa.

Recent Polls Reflect Growing Support

A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,007 likely voters from September 19 to 22 showed Talarico ahead of Paxton by five points. Another poll by Texas Southern University in late July had Talarico leading by two percentage points. The margin of error included in these polls ranges around 3.6% to 4%.

Market Predictions and Challenges

Prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi indicated increased confidence in Talarico’s victory prospects. As of recent updates, Polymarket gives Talarico a 61% chance of winning, while Kalshi suggests a 59% probability.

Controversies and Campaign Dynamics

Paxton, backed by Trump, has faced controversial challenges within his party. He defeated John Cornyn, an incumbent Republican Senator, in a primary runoff despite Cornyn’s criticism. Paxton faced impeachment by the Texas House for alleged misconduct but was acquitted by the state Senate.

Meanwhile, Talarico faced backlash over statements about Christianity, leading to some friction amongst voters. A video shared by Paxton’s campaign formed part of these controversies, capturing AI-generated remarks attributed to Talarico.

Talarico recently called for a debate with Paxton on Fox News, but no official schedule has been outlined. Paxton’s advisor confirmed their intent to debate.