Winners and Losers as Iran Conflict Marks 100 Days

The Iran conflict has reached its 100th day, yet no definitive victor has emerged. Nonetheless, early winners and losers have surfaced, challenging pre-war predictions. Notably, political and business leaders often achieve significant milestones within such a timeframe. Now, the war has yielded other crucial numbers. Up to 2,211 people have died, over 22,000 have been injured, and more than 3.9 million individuals have been displaced, according to estimates by missile strikes.com.

Over three months, the conflict has broadened to Lebanon, disrupted energy markets, and prompted Iranian reprisals across the Gulf. The U.S.’s standing in the region and global diplomatic dynamics have faced substantial challenges, raising questions about the beneficiaries and the disadvantaged.

Winners

Iran’s Regime

In response to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, the Iranian regime endured severe infrastructural damage. However, despite extensive attacks and economic destabilization, the regime remains intact. Initially aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the strikes faced setbacks. The U.S. imposed a blockade affecting Iran’s critical energy export routes, but Iran managed to impede vital oil waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz, effectively transferring control to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard for a period.

Contrasting with President Trump’s claims about impending deals, Iran continues to reject negotiations over its nuclear technology. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi highlighted limited inspector access, while Iranian authorities maintain their stance on nuclear enrichment. The ongoing conflict has stalled Trump’s aspirations for a new nuclear agreement, posing implications for U.S. security.

China

China, an essential trade partner and primary importer of Iran’s crude oil, gained strategic leverage due to its economic connections. Amid escalating Iranian attacks on Gulf facilities, the U.S.’s influence over regional security wanes, presenting China with opportunities to shape the Middle Eastern landscape. Despite diplomatic advancements during a summit between Trump and Xi Jinping, concrete outcomes remain elusive. Xi Jinping’s stature as a global influencer has been amplified, although China’s economic stability remains uncertain amid global upheaval.

Ukraine

The Iran conflict has diverted attention from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, benefiting Kyiv strategically. Russian oil sanctions eased, granting Moscow temporary economic advantages. Ukrainian expertise in countering Iranian drones bolstered U.S. and Gulf defense strategies, strengthening partnerships. The conflict allowed Ukraine to enhance its geopolitical position despite economic uncertainties.

Losers

Energy Market

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused Brent crude prices to surge from $71 to approximately $96 per barrel, adversely affecting global consumers. The risk premium on oil prices increased due to heightened geopolitical tensions. Although alternative supply sources provided temporary relief, the market’s vulnerability to geopolitical events remains a significant concern.

Lebanon

Lebanon, embroiled in the extended conflict, experiences significant fallout. Hezbollah’s rocket attacks into Israeli territory have led to military incursions and subsequent displacement. Israeli forces have consolidated strategic positions, and intense combat has escalated sectarian tensions. The humanitarian crisis worsens, with extensive property damage and government marginalization exacerbating Lebanon’s precarious status.

Too Early To Call

Israel

Israel sought to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities and subdue proxy groups. While achieving tactical victories over Hezbollah, broader goals remain unmet. Ongoing negotiations, ceasefire discussions, and complex regional dynamics influence Israel’s strategic prospects. The ultimate outcome hinges on resolution and long-term developments in both Iran and Lebanon.