Trump’s Immigration Policy Claim on Car Insurance Debunked

President Donald Trump has attributed the decline in car insurance premiums to his immigration policies, pointing to a supposed rise during Joe Biden’s presidency due to illegal immigration. In a recent Truth Social post, Trump shared data showing premium trends from 2021 to 2026, suggesting his policies reversed prior increases caused by illegal immigration.

The graphic presented by Trump reflected a steep increase in premiums from 2021 to 2023, with a decline beginning in 2024. It cited an analysis by the Council of Economic Advisers, using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Trump’s post claimed, “Car Insurance Premiums rose to RECORD HIGHS, forcing Law-abiding American Citizens to subsidize the ‘free riding’ Biden Illegals. After over a year of ZERO ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, and our highly successful efforts to REVERSE the Biden Invasion, Car Insurance Premiums have come tumbling down.”

The Facts:

Experts have dismissed Trump’s claims as incorrect. They attribute the rise in car insurance premiums primarily to the COVID-19 pandemic. Factors include increased risk on the roads and supply chain disruptions that drove up repair costs. Insurers are now reducing rates to remain competitive, as their financial status improves.

Michael Clemens, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University, labeled Trump’s claim as “pure fiction.” He stated that it lacks support from any credible studies or data from the White House, auto insurance industry, or anti-immigration groups.

At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, declared in March 2020, reduced driving led to fewer accidents and claims. This situation allowed insurance companies to lower rates as they aimed to attract more customers. However, as driving volumes returned to normal in 2022, accidents and claims increased, partly due to reckless and distracted driving. Additionally, auto part supply issues contributed to rising premium costs.

By 2024, premiums began decreasing as accident rates fell and insurance companies’ finances strengthened. Mark Friedlander from the Insurance Information Institute stated, “Over the past two years, the auto insurance industry has generated an underwriting profit following the implementation of significant rate actions to offset losses.” Insurance costs have also aligned more closely with U.S. inflation rates, leading to widespread rate decreases and dividend payments to policyholders by major insurers like State Farm and USAA.

Link Between Illegal Immigration and Premiums

A 2023 study published in the Journal of Insurance Issues pointed out a connection between high numbers of uninsured drivers and regions with higher illegal immigrant populations. However, this linkage occurs primarily in states where individuals without legal status cannot obtain driver’s licenses and, consequently, car insurance.

Clemens noted that this association is insufficient to explain the approximately 50% spike in premiums following the pandemic. He estimated illegal immigration during Biden’s term accounted for less than a 0.07% increase in premiums.

In his post, Trump reiterated unfounded claims that Biden’s immigration policies allowed millions of criminals into the U.S. from foreign prisons and mental facilities.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Find AP Fact Checks here.