Florida Governor Race: Donalds vs. Jolly

Florida Governor Nominees

Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly emerged as their parties’ nominees for Florida governor. Republicans usually expect to win comfortably in Florida, owing to recent shifts to the right. In 2024, President Donald Trump carried the state by approximately 13 points. Additionally, Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection by nearly 20 points in 2022.

Republicans have a significant registration advantage over Democrats. The GOP is further strengthened by the state’s newly redrawn congressional map. On paper, Donalds would be the heavy favorite. However, polling suggests Jolly could make the race more competitive than the historical trend suggests.

While no Democrat has won the Florida governorship in more than 25 years, Democrats hold out hope for an upset. Donalds secured his primary race with roughly 49 percent of votes, while Jolly garnered nearly 62 percent. Associated Press called the races at 8 p.m. ET.

Speaking with CNN before results were called, Jolly expressed confidence: “If the election were tonight, we would win the general election in Florida as a Democratic candidate.” He believes the cycle presents an opportunity where voters are demanding change.

Poll Insights

A University of North Florida survey showed Donalds leading Jolly by a narrow 46 percent to 41 percent margin. This five-point lead falls short of the sizable margins Republicans have enjoyed in recent statewide elections. In the survey, 5 percent supported someone else, 2 percent would not vote, and 6 percent were undecided.

The race is particularly tight among non-party affiliated respondents. Donalds holds just a one-point advantage, 39 percent to 38 percent.

The poll surveyed 848 likely midterm voters in Florida from July 8 to July 17, 2026, with a margin of error of 3.8 percent.

Other polls show less competitiveness. A Targoz Market Research poll for the James Madison Institute placed Donalds ahead by 7 points, leading with 45 percent compared to Jolly’s 38 percent. Here, 17 percent remained undecided or favored another candidate.

This poll surveyed 1,026 likely voters from July 20 to July 26, 2026. Another poll from Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research showed Donalds leading Jolly by 7 percent. Donalds secured 47 percent compared to Jolly’s 40 percent, with 7 percent undecided. This survey involved 848 likely voters from March 25 to April 13, 2026, with a margin of error of 4.1 percent.

Craig Agranoff, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, remarked that a Democratic upset in the general election would be challenging. Florida has leaned solidly Republican in recent cycles due to a clear registration edge and strong presidential margins. Since the 1990s, no Democrat has won the governorship. A Jolly win would be notable during Trump’s presidency.

Yet, higher opposition turnout during midterms and local issues still matter. While fundamentals favor Republicans maintaining the seat, a closer race is possible if independents shift or if economic concerns prevail.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets strongly favor Donalds. Reflecting Florida’s Republican lean and Donalds’ advantages in fundraising and party infrastructure, markets view Donalds as the overwhelming favorite.

On prediction market site Kalshi, Republicans had an 83 percent chance of winning the general election compared to 21 percent for Democrats. On Polymarket, Republicans held a similar 83 percent chance of victory versus Democrats’ 18 percent chance.

Donalds enters the general election with Trump’s endorsement and a national profile. Meanwhile, Jolly faces the challenge of winning statewide as a Democrat where his party has struggled recently. The disparity between polling and prediction markets is significant. Polls show Jolly within single digits, but prediction markets deem defeating Donalds a long shot.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a Solid Republican pickup.

Florida’s Political Makeup

Despite hurdles, Democrats believe Florida might be within reach. The party achieved surprising victories in special elections, including an upset in a state House district Trump previously won by a big margin.

While these contests do not directly translate to a statewide gubernatorial race, they show Republican strength isn’t absolute. Democratic candidates can outperform expected baselines under favorable conditions.

Jolly represents an unusual Democratic nominee—a former Republican congressman with a moderate profile, potentially appealing to independents and disaffected Republicans.

Nevertheless, for Donalds to lose, Jolly must overcome the state’s Republican lean and Donalds’ current polling advantage. Democrats need to consolidate around Jolly, win over independents, and possibly persuade Republicans to cross party lines.

The five-point UNF margin indicates such a scenario, while challenging, is not impossible. For now, Donalds remains the clear favorite. Yet, if Jolly turns the current single-digit deficit into a consistent polling lead, Florida’s 2026 governor’s race could become one of the nation’s most closely watched contests.