Iowa Senate Race Heats Up as New Polls Show Close Contest

A recent poll indicates that Democrat Josh Turek is gaining support among voters who previously supported President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. This development comes as Turek competes against Republican Ashley Hinson for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. The race is tight, with the seat left by the retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst being highly contested. During the first debate, issues such as tariffs, immigration, and voting records were crucial. Both candidates have also clashed regarding Iowa’s economy, addressing inflation and rising fuel costs.

The YouGov poll surveyed 2,245 likely Iowa voters from October 6 to October 12. It shows Turek leading Hinson 47 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The results suggest Turek is attracting some Trump voters. In the poll, 41 percent supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, compared with 52 percent who supported Trump. Given Turek’s current edge, he appears to have gained backing from voters who cast ballots for Trump previously. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Turek’s lead in the YouGov poll is smaller than in other recent surveys. A Suffolk University poll from October 1 to October 4 gave him a 4-point lead, 48 percent to 44 percent. In several other polls, Turek had a 2-point lead, including a Beacon Research analysis showing him at 49 percent compared to Hinson’s 47 percent between September 24 and September 28. An InsiderAdvantage poll on September 22 and 23 gave Turek a 1-point lead at 47 percent to 46 percent, while a Marist University poll from September 17 to 20 showed Turek with an 8-point lead at 50 percent to 42 percent.

Polls also favored Hinson in some cases. An Emerson College poll on October 5 and 6 had Hinson leading at 47 percent, compared to Turek’s 45 percent. A CNN poll from September 29 to October 5 gave Hinson a 2-point lead, at 45 percent to Turek’s 43 percent. Two Quantus Insights polls and a New York Times/Siena University poll conducted during late September and early October showed Hinson with slight leads.

Newsweek contacted both campaigns for comments. Since the second debate occurred on Tuesday night, its outcomes were not factored into the YouGov poll.

The poll explored Trump’s approval ratings in Iowa. A majority expressed disapproval of his performance. Among respondents, 29 percent strongly approved, and 17 percent somewhat approved. At the same time, 5 percent somewhat disapproved, and 49 percent strongly disapproved. One percent were unsure.

Prediction markets present a different picture, with both Polymarket and Kalshi showing Hinson with a substantial lead over Turek. On Polymarket, Hinson leads at 57 percent to Turek’s 42 percent. Kalshi shows a slightly greater lead for Hinson, at 58 percent to 42 percent for Turek.

The Iowa Senate race holds significant importance for the 2026 midterms. This year’s elections could shift control of Congress as Republicans address concerns about the economy, inflation, and rising fuel costs. Though Iowa has leaned Republican in Senate elections since 2008, it has a history of voting for presidential candidates from both parties. While Trump won Iowa in the last three election cycles, prior to that, Barack Obama secured the state twice.

For Turek’s campaign, the poll offered positive insights as Democrats have not won an Iowa Senate election since Tom Harkin defeated Christopher Reed 18 years ago. Since then, Republicans Ernst and Chuck Grassley have maintained control over Iowa’s Senate seats.

Early voting began on Tuesday in Iowa and will continue through November 2, with midterm elections occurring on November 3.