Tight Race in Georgia’s Republican Gubernatorial Runoff

The Republican gubernatorial runoff in Georgia intensifies as new polls reveal a shift in support. Businessman Rick Jackson now leads Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, despite Jones initially being the front-runner with an endorsement from President Donald Trump.

In the first primary, Jones received roughly 39 percent of the votes, outperforming Jackson who garnered 33 percent, resulting in the current runoff. However, a recent Cygnal polling memo indicates Jackson has closed the gap and gained an edge.

Polling Shifts

The Cygnal memo outlines how Jackson’s support has surged. Initially, a first-choice ballot conducted on May 28 had Jones leading Jackson 41 percent to 38 percent. By June 7, the scenario had reversed, placing Jackson at 46 percent support and Jones at 35 percent. The memo states, “Jones has everything moving against him,” noting a significant swing from a 3-point lead for Jones to an 11-point lead for Jackson, a total shift of 14 points.

The combined ballot figures show Jackson with 56 percent against Jones’ 44 percent. The memo highlights that “Jones has not had a single day where he closed the spread.”

Contrasting Poll Results

Other polls indicate differing results. A CivicLens Research survey places Jones ahead by 10 points, at 50 percent compared to Jackson’s 40 percent, with 10 percent of voters undecided. This survey, conducted with 700 likely GOP voters from May 29 to June 1, has a 4 percentage point margin of error.

Conversely, a JMC Enterprises poll conducted on May 26 and 27 found Jackson leading by 2 points, 45 percent to Jones’ 43 percent, with around 12 percent undecided. The margin of error is also 4 percentage points.

Despite varying poll results, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket still favor Jones for the GOP nomination. Kalshi estimates his odds at 58 percent and Polymarket at 61 percent as of Tuesday evening.

Georgia’s Gubernatorial Landscape

Despite backing Trump in 2024, Georgia remains a key battleground state. Democrats currently occupy both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans hold the governor’s office.

Following the runoff, the eventual Republican nominee will compete against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the general election.

Trump’s endorsement carries significant weight in Republican primaries, impacting numerous contests this cycle and solidifying his influence within the party. Republican figures who oppose Trump have faced challenges, exemplified by Trump-backed candidates defeating incumbents like Representative Thomas Massie, Senator Bill Cassidy, and Senator John Cornyn.

Current Governor Brian Kemp’s term limit highlights the dynamic between Trump and Georgia Republicans. Kemp’s refusal to challenge the 2020 election results led to a temporary rift with Trump. Though they reconciled and Kemp supports Trump’s 2024 campaign, this instance illustrates a willingness among Georgia Republicans to occasionally diverge from Trump on certain issues.