Texas Senate Race: Talarico Faces Uphill Battle Against Paxton

Democratic candidate James Talarico’s prospects of overtaking Republican Ken Paxton have diminished since Paxton secured the GOP nomination for Texas’ U.S. Senate race. On Tuesday night, Texas Attorney General Paxton, endorsed by President Donald Trump, defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn with a significant 62% of the vote, as confirmed by the Associated Press.

Following this victory, prediction markets adjusted favorably toward Paxton, although the election remains unpredictable with over five months to go until November. The upcoming election is set to challenge whether Democrats can achieve a statewide victory in Texas, a feat not accomplished since the mid-1990s. Trends in suburban areas close to cities like Austin, Dallas, and Houston indicate a competitive race, supported by recent polling and prediction market shifts. Newsweek contacted Talarico’s campaign for comments after regular business hours.

Betting Odds

Prediction market Polymarket indicates Talarico’s chances of winning the Texas Senate election have slipped by 5 percentage points since Tuesday, from 45% to approximately 40% by Thursday. Presently, Kalshi estimates Talarico’s odds at 43%, a decline from around 44% earlier in the week.

BetOnline’s release noted that after Paxton’s primary victory, market prices shifted back toward the GOP, following a period where Talarico held a slight edge. Currently, Paxton is positioned at -125 odds, with Talarico at -105, suggesting a competitive race with Paxton slightly favored.

What the Polls Have Said

Poll results indicate a tight race with no clear frontrunner across multiple surveys. Earlier polls showed a close contest. In January, an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,165 Texas voters reported a deadlock between Paxton and Talarico, both at 45.6%.

Talarico, a state lawmaker and Presbyterian pastor, secured the Democratic nomination in March by defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett. By April, several polls showed Talarico taking the lead over Paxton, who faced a divided Republican primary. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll, conducted from April 17 to 20, indicated Talarico had 46% compared to Paxton’s 41%.

Another poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas reported Talarico ahead by 8 points, with a 42% to 34% lead. Yet, a subsequent poll by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University showed a tie, with each candidate having 45% support among 1,223 registered voters polled between April 22 and May 6.

Overall, the polling depicts a race evolving from an early draw to a phase of Democratic strength, before tightening as GOP voters rally behind one candidate. Talarico’s poll standings surpass those of Beto O’Rourke at this stage of the 2018 Texas Senate race, suggesting Democrats may be approaching the 2026 contest from a stronger position.

The Cook Political Report still categorizes the race as Lean Republican, acknowledging Texas’s historical GOP preference.

What Have Paxton and Talarico Said About the Race?

“Today, change was on the ballot and change won,” Paxton declared from a temporary stage at the Dallas/Plano Marriott following his runoff victory. “This Senate seat belongs to you, the hardworking men and women of this state.” Paxton, whom Trump labeled a “MAGA Warrior,” has appealed to grassroots conservative voters, emphasizing border security and opposing federal policies.

Talarico’s campaign has faced criticism from Republicans over past statements, such as his 2021 comment during a legislative debate that “God is nonbinary.” Republicans have leveraged such remarks in their messaging and advertising, highlighting his advocacy for LGBTQ+ rights to portray him as excessively liberal for a statewide race.

Talarico frames the race as a choice between “corruption and extremism” and a more balanced, policy-focused governmental approach. He has criticized Paxton, labeling him “the most corrupt politician in America” and accusing him of prioritizing personal interests over Texas’s laws. These claims reference Paxton’s impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives in 2023 on charges such as office abuse and corruption, charges Paxton denies. He was acquitted in the Senate.

Texans will vote on November 3, 2026.